Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances

Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances
Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances
Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances
Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances

Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances

Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances

Early Winter Predicted for North India due to Western Disturbances

North India is expected to experience an early onset of winter this year, primarily due to a series of western disturbances. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that a fresh wave of western disturbances will influence the western Himalayas and the plains of northwest India starting from the upcoming weekend.

The early arrival of western disturbances has already led to a drop in temperatures in Delhi. On October 12, the minimum temperature in Delhi plummeted to 16.4 degrees Celsius, marking the lowest temperature in the first half of October since October 12, 1962.

This early onset of winter is attributed to the early arrival of western disturbance activities in October. Normally, western disturbance activities commence in the last week of October. However, this year, they arrived on October 9, with another phase scheduled for October 15-16 and October 20-21, which is expected to further lower temperatures.

Western disturbances are expected to bring snowfall to higher altitudes, while northwesterly winds will contribute to the decrease in temperature. In contrast, the previous year witnessed negligible western disturbance activities, with such activities only becoming prominent in January 2023, resulting in rainfall.

Western disturbances will likely bring light to moderate rain and snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and parts of Himachal Pradesh. Furthermore, there may be an increase in rainfall over North Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of West Uttar Pradesh.

The IMD predicts a wet spell over Northwest India from October 14 to 17, with isolated heavy rainfall anticipated in Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the next 4-5 days due to the development of a cyclonic circulation over north Tamil Nadu.

Simultaneously, the southwest monsoon is withdrawing from eastern and southern regions. The final withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is anticipated between October 20 and 26, coinciding with the commencement of northeast monsoon rains over southeast peninsular India. The IMD has forecasted normal to above-normal rainfall activity over extreme south Peninsular India, plains of northwest India, central and adjoining east India, and below-normal rainfall in northeast India after October 20.

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