Congress Gears Up for Battle in Madhya Pradesh

Congress Gears Up for Battle in Madhya Pradesh

Congress Gears Up for Battle in Madhya Pradesh

In the ever-evolving political landscape of Madhya Pradesh, the Congress has its sights set on redemption after a rollercoaster ride. From its resurgence in 2018 to the loss of power in 2020, the party is now poised to confront the BJP head-on, addressing issues ranging from corruption to the plight of farmers, tribals, and women.

Strengths: Building Momentum and Strategic Moves

The Congress has witnessed a significant upswing in its vote share, soaring from 30% two decades ago to over 40% in 2018. State chief Kamal Nath is actively countering the BJP’s Hindutva narrative by organizing religious discourses in Chhindwara. Additionally, the party’s ranks have been bolstered by the defection of several BJP leaders. Furthermore, the Congress anticipates solid support on 47 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, having secured 30 such seats in the previous election.

Weaknesses: Organizational Challenges and Scindia’s Departure

Despite its electoral gains, the Congress still grapples with a comparatively weaker organizational structure in contrast to the BJP’s robust setup. The absence of Jyotiraditya Scindia could prove detrimental in the Gwalior-Chambal region, where the Congress had won a majority of seats last time. The party’s tally dropped to 16 following bypolls triggered by defections from Scindia loyalists. With 66 seats having eluded them in multiple past elections, the Congress faces a daunting task. Moreover, the delayed announcement of candidates, in contrast to the BJP’s proactive approach, has fueled concerns of factionalism.

Opportunities: Anti-Incumbency and Issue-Based Campaigning

The BJP, having ruled for 18 years, grapples with anti-incumbency sentiments. Internal disputes within the BJP’s state unit are also becoming increasingly apparent. The Congress has successfully raised concerns about unemployment, the VYAPAM scam, and alleged irregularities in Patwari exams. Furthermore, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has not embarked on a high-decibel campaign in Madhya Pradesh, creating an opportunity for the Congress to consolidate its position.

Threats: BJP Resilience and Emerging Contenders

The BJP has maintained a vote share of 40% or higher since 2003, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah intensifying their campaign efforts. Stalwarts like Narendra Singh Tomar, Kailash Vijayvargiya, and Prahlad Patel have been enlisted, potentially countering anti-incumbency sentiments. Moreover, new players like AAP and AIMIM pose a threat by potentially eroding the Congress’s support base.