
Apple Faces Significant iPhone Shipment Decline in 2024 Amid Structural Challenges and China Demand Drop
Apple Faces Significant iPhone Shipment Decline in 2024 Amid Structural Challenges and China Demand Drop
A recent analysis by TF Securities International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that Apple’s iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 shipments could experience a substantial decline in 2024. The Cupertino giant is reportedly grappling with structural challenges in the ever-changing landscape of flagship smartphone design, coupled with a diminishing demand for its products in China.
According to Kuo’s Medium post, the results of his latest supply chain survey indicate that Apple has scaled back shipments of crucial upstream semiconductor components by nearly 15 percent compared to the previous year, amounting to approximately 200 million units. He predicts a 10 percent year-on-year (YoY) decline in shipments for Apple’s iPhone 15 series in the first half of 2024, followed by a potential 15 percent YoY drop for the iPhone 16 series in the second half of the same year.
Kuo attributes Apple’s anticipated decline in iPhone shipments to several factors, including the increasing popularity of foldable phones and the integration of generative AI (GenAI) features into high-end smartphones. Additionally, the company is said to be facing weakened demand in China, where Huawei is making a comeback, and foldable phones are gaining traction among users opting for flagship devices. Weekly iPhone shipments in China have reportedly declined by 30 to 40 percent YoY in recent weeks.
While Canalys data from Q4 2023 shows Huawei reclaiming its position among the top 4 brands in China, Apple’s shipments in the country rose by 6 percent YoY, reaching 17.5 million units. Apple maintained the highest market share in China during the same period, as per Canalys. However, an IDC report revealed a 2 percent drop in iPhone shipments in China during Q4 2023.
In response to these challenges, Apple has adjusted its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in the first half of 2024. Conversely, Samsung has reportedly increased its shipment forecast by 5 to 10 percent, attributing the rise to the GenAI functions of its handsets. Samsung introduced new ‘Galaxy AI’ features on the Galaxy S24 series, while Apple is expected to introduce AI features with its upcoming iOS 18 update later in the year.
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